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MANILA — The peace process with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) represents more than just an agreement on paper — it’s a defining moment for the Philippines’ commitment to national unity, regional stability, and equitable development. For President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr., it’s also a political litmus test that could shape his legacy and future influence, particularly in the context of his simmering political competition with Vice President Sara Duterte. With the Mindanao vote playing a pivotal role in national elections, any failure to solidify peace with the MILF risks critical consequences for both governance and political stability in Mindanao and in the Philippines.
The Stakes of Peace
Mindanao has long been the site of one of Southeast Asia’s most protracted conflicts, leaving thousands dead and millions displaced. The signing of the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL) and the establishment of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) were historic steps toward addressing decades of grievances over marginalization and underdevelopment. The MILF’s cooperation has been instrumental in this transition, marking a rare victory for peace in a nation too often divided by conflict. However, the peace process remains fragile. Continued progress relies on fulfilling promises of autonomy and normalization. For millions in Mindanao, this represents the hope for a better future — a life free from violence, poverty, and political neglect. A stable BARMM is also critical for national security, as failure could lead to a resurgence of extremist factions that exploit disillusionment with the peace process.
The Political Minefield
For the President, mismanaging the peace process with the MILF would not only erode trust among the Bangsamoro people but also weaken his standing in Mindanao, where he faces stiff political competition from the Vice President. Duterte, who hails from Davao City in Mindanao, enjoys strong regional support and has positioned herself as a defender of the island’s interests. If Marcos falters, she could capitalize on the discontent, further consolidating her influence in a region crucial to any presidential bid. Mindanao’s voters played a decisive role in the May 2022 elections, delivering massive margins for the Marcos-Duterte tandem. However, that unity is already broken and now political loyalties are being brokered. A failure to deliver on the peace process would embolden Duterte and other opposition leaders to exploit the sentiments of the Bangsamoro people. This would not only complicate Marcos’s political calculus but could also weaken his grip on national politics.
What Happens If Marcos Fails?
If Marcos abandons the MILF upon a mistaken advice that the group is a spent force or that he can rely on politics of patronage and deal with individuals rather than the MILF organization, the consequences could be dire. Disillusionment among former MILF combatants, who remain loyal to the cause, could reignite tensions, with disenfranchised groups potentially turning to extremist organizations such as the Abu Sayyaf or ISIS-linked groups. This would undo years of painstaking negotiations and undermine the fragile peace in Mindanao. A failed peace process would send a dangerous signal to other insurgent groups, eroding faith in negotiations as a viable path to achieving their goals. Internationally, it would reflect poorly on Marcos’s leadership, casting doubt on his administration’s ability to manage complex political challenges. Politically, the Vice President and her allies could frame such a failure as indicative of the President’s neglect of Mindanao, reinforcing her narrative as the region’s true champion. The fallout could severely damage Marcos’s political prospects, particularly if Duterte leverages the issue to consolidate her position as a frontrunner for the 2028 presidential race. On the geopolitical front, several observers surmised that a failed peace process with the MILF can be exploited by Chinese influence operations to distract the Philippine Government’s attention from China’s aggression in the surrounding seas.
The Way Forward
To avoid these pitfalls, Marcos must prioritize his relationship with the MILF as an organization. This means continue cooperating and working with BARMM Chief Minister and MILF Chairman Al-Haj Murad Ebrahim to fulfill the promises of normalization and autonomy, providing adequate and timely funding for the programs of BARMM, ensuring the region’s development projects are implemented, and supporting a fair and inclusive political transition. Active engagement with MILF leadership is essential to maintaining trust and demonstrating commitment. In the broader context, the MILF peace process is more than just a regional issue — it is a national imperative. For Marcos, successfully navigating this challenge will require deft leadership, political will, and an unwavering focus on delivering results. Anything less risks not just the collapse of peace in Mindanao but also a seismic shift in the country’s political landscape, with potentially devastating consequences for his administration and the nation as a whole.
To his credit, the President has time and again assured his support for the full implementation of the 2014 Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) and to work hand-in-hand with the Bangsamoro government in realizing the promise of peace.
Note that the Mindanao peace process has come full circle: the late President Ferdinand E. Marcos, Sr., the father, started the search for peace with the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) through the 1976 Tripoli Agreement. Now, the full implementation of the peace accords with the erstwhile Moro revolutionary organizations falls in the hands of the son.
Let’s us hope and wish that Marcos, Jr. does not waiver in his resolve and avowed commitment in fulfilling the promise of peace in Mindanao, in particular, and the Philippines, in general.
Peace is a precious commodity. Preserving it requires steely commitment, saying no to violence, and supporting the peacemakers, for which every Filipino and Bangsamoro should. (♡)