TICKING TIME BOMB. Featured image above shows Deputy Chief Dr. Yugang Bao (center), Asia Breau, AIDS Healthcare Foundation (AHF); Deputy Chief Director of Global Advocacy and Policy Ms. Loretta Wong, AHF Global; and Country Program Manager Dr. Ryan C. Guinaran, AHF Philippines, point to a clock signifying a potential explosion of HIV epidemic in the Philippines if government does not act in haste and strongly. 

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In Filipinos’ battle against HIV incidence in the Philippines, the country achieved, so far, only more than 50 percent of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) “95-95-95” roadmap. Why?

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MANILA, October 24, 2026 (SDN) — The AIDS Healthcare Foundation (AHF) has urged the Philippines to act in haste and strongly as it warned the country’s rising HIV epidemic is emerging as a ticking time bomb waiting to explode.

On Thursday, October 22, AHF Philippines headed by Country Program Manager Dr. Ryan C. Guinaran conducted a media briefing at its Headquarters in Quezon City, Metro Manila revolving around the theme of “Empowered Stories: Advancing Accurate, Ethical, and Stigma-Free Reporting on HIV” with the launch of the first AHF Media Awards.

He was joined in by AHF Asia Bureau Deputy Chief Dr. Yugang Bao, and Global Advocacy and Policy Deputy Chief Director Ms. Loretta Wong, AHF Global.

At the start of the press briefing, the triumvirate from AHF posed with a red clock held by Dr. Bao, flanked by Ms. Wong and Dr. Guinaran who pointed to the clock, uttering “tick-tock, tick-tock”, symbolizing an “HIV ticking time bomb” waiting to explode if the government fails to act adequately and quick.

The two AHF executives flew in from abroad specifically for the briefing, carrying a somber warning as they and Dr. Guinaran pleaded with the Philippines to act as the government’s commitment to the “Joint United Nations Programmed on AIDS/HIV (UNAIDS) 95-95-95” roadmap falls behind, trailing some of its 10 other neighbors in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

ASEAN groups Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Timor Leste, Thailand, and Vietnam.

So, is the Philippines really biting the virus dust, lagging behind, or stagnating in the battle against the HIV epidemic?

Remember that the “95-95-95 by 2025” goal refers to what is described as ambitious worldwide strategy the members of the United Nations adopted to eliminate by 2030 the HIV/AIDS epidemic as a public health menace.

The first 95% refers to the number of People Living with HIV (PLHIV) who know their HIV status; the second 95% points to people who know their HIV status get sustained Antiretroviral Therapy (ART); the third 95% means people getting ART achieved viral load suppression, an instance where the virus is reduced to undetectable levels in their blood, keeping them healthy that eliminates risk of transmission during sexual contact.

First off, Dr. Guinaran pointed out that the figures as of June 2026 on the continued spread of the HIV virus, the Philippines has only so far registered an average of 56% vis-a-vis the UN AIDS/HIV 95-95-95 roadmap. Breaking down the 56% average, he said, translates to 56% for the first 95% (PLHIV), second 95%, 69% ART recipients, and third 95%, 57% undetectable cases.

Here’s the thing as explained during the “HIV 101” lecture for the media

Perhaps, the HIV 101 presentation had shown why Ms. Wong, Dr. Bao, and Dr. Guinaran considered the HIV incidence in the country having the character of a “ticking time bomb”.

As explained by AHF Philippines, there could be 224,150 people (78% of the 228,000 PLHIV) who potentially are now transmitting HIV without their knowledge.

This is because, as explained, of the 228,000 PLHIV there are only 111,000 who are under treatment.

Then, there are around 40,000 individuals who know they are carrying the virus but are not receiving treatment.

Now, 128,000 people have no idea they may have virus in their body, naturally they are not being treated.

Still more, there are some 54,000 individual whose status is not known if their ART treatment had made them “virally suppressed”, or not. Meaning, their viral load was not tested whether they won’t be able anymore to transmit HIV.

” We can’t give a conclusion because their viral load was not tested (to determine if it’s already undetectable or untransmittable)…we don’t look at the numbers…these are actual people who could be transmitting the virus,” the AHF emphasized.

Ms. Wong, Dr. Bao, and Dr. Guinaran urged the Philippine government to act and act strongly and with haste in addressing the HIV problem.

“We urge the government to have a strong policy on HIV treatment and prevention,” Ms. Wong said. She added that sustainable political will is needed vis-a-vis the healthcare issue. “A country with people with strong body also has strong economy.

Dr. Bao, on the other hand, said: “I am here to express my hope and I hope the Philippines will give every city the power to support the prevention and control of HIV.

He noted that three years data from the DOH showed no progress on the first UNAIDS 95-95-95 goal, which is about PLHIV. “I hope the Philippines can exert more effort in the care, treatment, and control of HIV.”

As for Dr. Guinaran, the AHF Philippines urged the government to put in place a strong policy on HIV concerning awareness, prevention, and treatment.

He added the Philippines is one of 50 countries having trouble responding to HIV as he revealed his office sent a letter to President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. asking him to put more teeth on HIV-related initiatives.

Dr. Guinaran lauder the Philippine Health Insurance Corporation (PhilHealth) for its increasing assistance towards HIV treatment, noting the agency is about to launch a new HIV-focused initiative called “Hope” which he anticipates its launching in December.

The AHF Philippines head lamented that while the proposed budget for health in 2027 was Php24.5 billion, Congress approved only Php485 million.

Ms. Wong of AHF Global said: “We are celebrating our 40th Anniversary and we are still addressing the problem of HIV.” She added that AHF Global operates in 50 countries, 11 in Asia.

AHF Philippines used numbers from the AHF Global and the Department of Health-Epidemiology Bureau’s (DOH-EB) “HIV & AIDS Surveillance of the Philippines” for the period April to June 2026.

“Hopefully, by looking at these numbers, the government should be doing more strongly to address HIV incidence,” Dr. Guinaran says, at the same time cautioning that if it is seen that the number of PLHIV had decreased, it is not actually the case, but “detection rate (of PLHIV) has decreased because testing is slow”.

Well, the numbers are not exactly pretty

The DOH-EB surveillance places the latest estimated number of HIV in the country at 288,000 PLHIV as of June 2026, 56% of which, or 159,999, have been diagnosed or confirmed by laboratory tests.

Still reckoned from the 288,000 PLHIV, 111,154, or 69% of PLHIV already diagnosed, are presently receiving life-saving ART, and further broken down into 65,630, or 59% of the 288,00 PLHIV were tested for viral load (VL) in the past 12 months.

The DOH surveillance data also showed that of those who got VL tests, 63,850 (97%) were vitally suppressed.

“However, only 57% were vitally suppressed among PLHIV on ART,” the health department emphasized.

AHF Philippines head, Dr. Guinaran, assured during the press briefing that although the numbers the DOH cited were estimates, the way they were arrived at is very reliable.

“Compared to the previous reporting period (January-March 2026), diagnosis coverage increased by 2 percentage points, treatment coverage decreased by 3 percent points, and VL suppression among PLHIV on ART increased by 7 percentage points,” the health department explained.

SDN – SciTech & Digital News learned these and more from the 2026 second quarter (26Q2) surveillance reports the DOH released recently, provided by AHF Philippines to select members of the media during the briefing.

The Joint UN Programme on HIV and AIDS or UNAIDS set the “95-95-95 by 2025” global target, and the Philippines is one of the States adhering to UNAIDS. As one of the States that committed to the “Political Declaration on HIV and AIDS: Ending Inequalities and Getting on Track to End AIDS by 2030″, which was adopted during the UN General Assembly in June 2021, the government integrated these high-level targets in the 7th AIDS Medium Term Plan – 2023 to 2028 Philippines: Fast Tracking to 2030.

When AHF Philippines’ Dr. Guinaran mentioned the high-reliability of DOH’s estimates on PLHIV, these were” modeled after the “AIDS Epidemic Model or AEM” and “Spectrum”.

The DOH updated its latest estimates on the number of PLHIV in May 2025 “with analyzed and triangulated data from the HIV/AIDS & ART Registry of the Philippines (HARP), Integrated HIV Behavioral and Serologic Surveillance (IHBSS), Key Population Surveys, Laboratory and Blood Bank Surveillance (LaBBS), Population Census, and other program data.”

To understand even more the “95-95-95 by 2025” goal, here are three of the important terms to remember, such as:

• Diagnosed PLHIV. This refers to the total number of diagnosed or laboratory-confirmed HIV cases reported in the HIV/AIDS Registry, who are currently alive or not yet reported to have died. (First 95)
• PLHIV on ART. This means the PLHIV who are currently receiving ART and have visited the facility for an antiretroviral (ARV) refill or accessed ARV refill before or within 30 days after pill run-out. (Second 95)
• Virally Suppressed PLHIV. The PLHIV on ART who have a viral load of <1000 HIV RNA per ml. of blood. Viral load refers to the amount of HIV present in a person’s infected blood. (Third 95)

Cascade of HIV Care among 6 ASEAN members

One of the slides shown during the AHF Philippines’ briefing for “HIV 101” lecture for the select members of the media present pertains to the “Cascade of HIV Care in the Asia” (Source: Kurnia, I. (2026) AHF Global Public Health Institute Asia and Western Pacific). The 10 countries in Asia — which AHF Global supports — have their accomplishments shown based on 2025 UNAIDS’ 95-95-95 global  target.

Four of the countries are non-ASEAN such as India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and China.

Of the 11 member-States of ASEAN, only Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar, Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Laos), and the Philippines are in the list of the “Cascade”.

The term “Cascade” or (Continuum) that UNAIDS used, as explained by HIV.gov “is a public health model that tracks the sequential steps or stages people living with HIV go through — from initial diagnosis to achieving and maintaining viral suppression”.

Still with HIV.gov, the steps or stages are:

• Diagnosis of HIV infection
• Linkage to HIV medical care
• Receipt of HIV medical care
• Retention in medical care
• Achievement and maintenance of viral suppression

Going back to the Asia Cascade, of the six ASEAN members, Cambodia is considered to have accomplished the 95-95-95 target with 93%; Thailand achieved 81%; Viet Nam got 72%; Myanmar registered 70%; and Laos made off with 63%.

The Philippines, has a poor 40%, similar accomplishment with Indonesia. Both the two ASEAN countries’ numbers are marked red, obvioulsy, to signify “Substantial drop off at diagnostic entry point”, which affects the two other 95-95 percentages. Sort of a domino effect. — EDD K. USMAN / SDN

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The author

EDD, a native of Sub-Saharan Africa Buluan/Datu Piang, Maguindanao del Sur, BARMM, college at UST, is a Manila-based journalist for over 40 years (33 years with Manila Bulletin), has five Media Awards (1 with University of the Philippines (UP) 2017 Science Journalism Award), covered and traveled over 40 times abroad), has contributed to Rappler, Business Mirror, Manila Business Insights, Panorama Magazine, Agriculture Magazine, and others, former Manila-based Foreign Correspondent of Saudi Arabia newspapers Saudi Gazette and Riyadh Daily, and The Peninsula (Qatar newspaper), with 2008 East-West Center (EWC) Journalism Seminar in the United States, 2000 Executive IT Seminar in Seoul, South Korea, with three Silver Awards in Photography, writes Muslim and Current Affairs, Enterprise, Science, Tech, Products Launch, and virtually everything under Heaven. (®

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Note: SDN asked AHF Philippines on the conflicting numbers 56% and 40% about the country’s accomplishment in the UNAIDS 95-95-95 by 2025 global target. No answer as of this moment (1:03 p.m., October 26).